Fewer than One in Five Students Who Began at Community Colleges Earned a Bachelor’s Degree Within Six Years

What the Latest Tracking Transfer Report Unveils About Community College Pathways

Community colleges remain one of the most important entry points into higher education, offering a flexible and affordable pathway to a bachelor’s degree for hundreds of thousands of students each year. However, only 18.0% of students who began their postsecondary education at a two-year college in fall 2018 earned a bachelor’s degree within six years of enrollment, according to new data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s Tracking Transfer report.

The report enables colleges and universities to benchmark progress and measure completion outcomes for transfer students moving from two- to four-year institutions. The latest data tracks two cohorts of students:

• Students who began their postsecondary education at community colleges in fall 2018, comprising nearly 830,000 first-time, degree-seeking students who started their higher education journeys at U.S. community colleges.
• Students who transferred from a community college to a four-year institution during the 2018-19 academic year, comprising approximately 480,000 students who had not yet earned a bachelor’s degree or higher.

Within six years of starting community college, 34.1% of students transferred to a four-year institution, the report reveals. “Community colleges serve as a vital engine for social mobility, providing a flexible and affordable entry point for hundreds of thousands of students seeking a bachelor’s degree,” said Matthew Holsapple, Senior Director of Research at the National Student Clearinghouse. “However, the latest findings from the Tracking Transfer report reveal a persistent gap between student aspirations and ultimate degree attainment.”

The report asks questions about who these students are and what happens after they transfer to four-year institutions:

• Of students who entered a community college in fall 2018, what were their transfer-out and bachelor’s completion rates within six years?
• Of students who transferred from a community college to a four-year institution in the 2018-19 academic year, what were their post-transfer retention and bachelor’s completion outcomes?

Key findings from both groups of students are outlined below.

Nearly Half a Million Students Transferred from a Community College to a Four-Year Institution in 2018-19

The report shows that approximately 480,000 students transferred from a community college to a four-year institution in 2018-19. Among these transfer students:

• 44.2% entered their four-year institution with an associate degree or certificate
• 73.1% transferred to public four-year institutions
• Most enrolled at institutions with competitive or less selective admissions

Only 7.7% transferred to highly selective institutions, suggesting that most community college transfer pathways lead to broad-access four-year universities.

Dual Enrollment Serves as an Indicator of Successful Transfer Outcomes

One notable finding: dual enrollment participation is increasingly shaping the community college pipeline. About 18.5% of students (153,000) entered community college after taking dual enrollment courses while still in high school. These early college experiences appear to influence later outcomes, especially transfer.

Additionally, students who had participated in dual enrollment before starting college were far more likely to transfer. Their transfer rate was 45.4%, compared with 31.6% among students who had not previously taken dual enrollment courses, amounting to a 13.8 percentage point difference. This finding reinforces a growing body of evidence suggesting that early exposure to college coursework can strengthen students’ pathways into four-year institutions.

Beatrix Randolph, a research associate at the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, shared, “There’s a theme of prior academic achievement building momentum toward the next milestone — not only do students who come into community college with prior dual enrollment transfer to a four-year school at higher rates, they also complete bachelor’s degrees at higher rates.” She added, “Similarly, students who earn an award before transferring go on to complete bachelor’s degrees at much higher rates, and earn those bachelor’s degrees faster, than those who didn’t receive an award before transferring.

Completing a Credential Before Transfer Makes a Big Difference

Another strong predictor of success is transferring with an associate degree or certificate already completed. Students who transferred with a credential achieved a 76.3% bachelor’s completion rate within six years, compared to 57.2% among those who transferred without one.

“While transferring without a credential can still lead to a bachelor’s degree, the data shows that having an award before transfer significantly improves outcomes,” said Randolph.

The good news is that transfer students who make it to a four-year institution are often successful. Nearly two out three (65.7%) of community college transfer students earned a bachelor’s degree within six years of transferring, representing over 315,000 graduates. Still, the timeline can be long. Only 15.3% completed a bachelor’s degree within two years of transfer, indicating that many transfer students require additional time to finish.

Institutional Type Matters

Bachelor’s completion outcomes vary depending on where students transfer:

• Public four-year institutions: 71.2% six-year completion rate
• Private nonprofit institutions: 57.1%
• Private for-profit institutions: 32.7%

These differences highlight the importance of transfer advising and institutional fit when students choose their next step.

Holsapple concludes, “Community colleges continue to serve as a critical gateway to higher education. The latest Tracking Transfer data shows that when students successfully move from a two-year to a four-year institution, especially with a credential already earned, the pathway can lead to strong outcomes.”

“There’s a theme of prior academic achievement building momentum toward the next milestone — not only do students who come into community college with prior dual enrollment transfer to a four-year school at higher rates, they also complete bachelor’s degrees at higher rates.”

Beatrix Randolph
Research Associate, National Student Clearinghouse Research Center