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Fall 2020 College Enrollment Update for the High School Graduating Class of 2020

by NSC Blog | Mar 25, 2021 | High School Benchmarking, K-12, Research Reports, Research Services |

6.8% Fewer Students Attending College Immediately After High School This Past Fall

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center recently updated the High School Benchmarks 2020 COVID-19 Special Analysis, which shows a 6.8% decline of high school graduates attending college immediately after high school this past fall, an unprecedented one-year decline.

This decline is more than four times larger than the 2019 pre-pandemic rate, but less than the 21.7% estimate reported in December 2020 preliminary report. The pattern of disparities among high schools of different characteristics remains largely the same as originally reported.

This new analysis is based on the addition of approximately 50% more data from high schools and colleges, and restated to correct a process error that resulted in an overestimate of the rate of decline in college enrollment counts.

The updated High School Benchmarks’ data covers approximately 860,000 graduates, from nearly 3,500 high schools, and their immediate fall enrollments in 87% of all postsecondary institutions that participate in the Clearinghouse. In addition to the main findings described below, detailed information about participant high school profiles and enrollment results can be found in the Appendix.

KEY FINDINGS

  • The pandemic disproportionately affected graduates of low-income, high-poverty, and high-minority high schools, with their enrollments dropping more steeply than their more advantaged counterparts. Enrollment declines were 2.3 times steeper for low-income high schools compared to higher-income schools. 
  • Urban and rural schools showed roughly equal rates of decline, and a larger enrollment rate gap from their suburban counterparts.
  • Community college enrollment dropped the most in low-income high schools while public, four-year enrollment was unaffected by the pandemic for high-income high schools.

“The new data show large enrollment disparities by income and poverty levels of high schools during COVID-19,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director, National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “Students from disadvantaged schools are showing much higher rates of decline in college enrollment than their more advantaged counterparts. These findings further illustrate how the pandemic has reduced access to postsecondary education, particularly for students seeking more affordable options in the public sector.

“Regarding the process error, we discovered it while updating last fall’s data, and we regret that this unusual error impacted both the past High School Benchmarks COVID-19 Special Analysis and the Transfer Report. After further review, we confirmed that the Transfer Reports’ major trends for fall 2020 remain the same. No other reports were impacted.”

The Research Center’s COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress Report for spring 2021 is scheduled to be released early April along with corrected errors for fall 2020. The report identifies changes in student transfer pathways that are attributable to the pandemic by using historical data as the pre-pandemic baseline and the Clearinghouse’s current enrollment data.

 

“The new data show large enrollment disparities by income and poverty levels of high schools during COVID-19.”

Doug Shapiro
Executive Director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center

 

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